Total Non-Farm Employment
Comparing Arkansas’ total non-farm employment to the U.S. indicates the State is performing better relative to the U.S. The chart below graphs the natural logs of the monthly values for each series normalized to January 2015. Normalization to this date reflects the relative performance beginning when Governor Hutchinson took office.
Note that the slope of the Arkansas line exceeds that for the U.S. beginning April 2015 until April 2016. The Arkansas slope dips a bit until June 2016 after which the growth rate of Arkansas exceeds the U.S. until April 2017. Note the slopes of AR is slightly above the US curve.
Arkansas non-farm employment growth rate dipped a bit in mid 2017 and again in January 2019. Now, both the US and AR normalized employment have tanked.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics updates the State’s employment mid-month following the end of the previous month.
Updated 9 June 2020. The last data point is April 2020.
SOURCE: FRED, US – PAYEMS, ARKANSAS – ARNA and the author’s calculations
A graph reveals that lottery revenues peaked in May 2011 (not shown) followed by a long decline reaching a minimum in December 2014. A major revamp of the lottery yielded a strong upward thrust which peaked in August 2016 followed by a gradual decline. The data suggests when new games are added lottery revenues increase. Lottery revenues vary seasonally by month of the year.
Using monthly total monthly sales thru December 2020, the forecast for total 12 month sales thru June 2021= $571,311,000. The Departments official lottery revenue forecast ending June 2021 is $497,000,000. The updated forecasts show a peak in April 2021 followed by a decline. The forecast remains above the the official forecast.
Forecasts updated on 18 January using the data ending in December 2020.
SOURCE: Lottery Commission, monthly disclosure reports, all counties total sales. The Commission updates its revenue collections approximately eight – ten days after the end of the month.
SUMMARY OF MONTHLY NET REVENUE FORECASTS FOR 2021
The graph shows the actual net revenues for the ending 12 months from January 2017 thru October 2020. The forecast for the net available revenues for the 12 months ending 30 June 2021 = $5,674,530. As an additional month of actual net revenues is reported, a new 12 month total is calculated. The new 12 month total is used, along with all the previous actual month’s totals, to calculate an updated forecast for the 12 months ending June 2021. In essence, the forecast for the 12 months ending June 2021 is revised monthly as actual monthly net revenues are reported and the forecast updated.
The State’s official forecast issued 2 April 2020 for the 12 months ending June 2021 = $5,687,300. This updated forecast is significantly lower than the State’s earlier official forecast issued before the virus.
An upward trend in net revenues existed until January 2020. Beginning in January, net revenues declined with significant monthly declines until July.
The monthly net revenue has increased more than forecast during the fall. However, while the monthly increases have been received favorably, the forecasts show a monthly decline thru June 2021.
SUMMARY OF MONTHLY NET REVENUE FORECASTS FOR 2021
The following graph shows the June 2021 forecasts calculated at the end of each month for net revenues and the upper and lower 95% confidence intervals around each forecast.
The monthly updated forecasts for the 12 months ending June 2021 are flat at about $5,700,000. These forecast mirror the official forecast of $5,674,530.
The following discussion uses the following 2020 Updated Monthly Forecasts as the reference.
Note that the upper and lower limits are wider surrounding the forecast made in June 2019 forecast compared to the much narrower limits surrounding the June 2019 forecast made in May 2020. The wider vs. narrow limits reflect that the equation for the confidence intervals for the forecasts 12 months ahead made in July 2019 includes the number 12 while the formula for one period ahead made in May 2020 includes the number one. Hence, the farther ahead the forecast the greater uncertainty as evidenced by the wider confidence limits.
The graph above shows the monthly forecasts slowly increasing from July 2019 until March 2020 when the decline began and continues thru the end of the fiscal year in June.
The monthly updates for the forecast net revenue collections using data ending the previous month are:
Monthly revisions for the forecast for 12 months ending June 2021 using data ending in the month of the forecast origin:
Monthly revisions for the forecast for 12 months ending June 2020:
12 months ending June 2020 actual collections = $5,753,300.
Updated 7 January 2021 using net revenue collected thru December 2020.
Source: Arkansas Dept. of Revenue and Finance
The graph shows the New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits: 1 – Unit Structures for Arkansas, not seasonally adjusted. The series exhibits significant variation and is highly seasonal with November and December permits significantly lower that the other ten months.
The updated forecasts thru April 2021 are shown below.
Note that the autumn seasonal downswing is underway. The decline is much larger than in the previous years.
The U.S. Bureau of Census updates this data series approximately 45 days after the end of the month.
Updated 18 December 2020 with last data point October 2020.
Source: FRED: Series = ARBP1FH, NSA
US and ARKANSAS LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia ceases publication of the U.S. and states leading economic index in February 2020. The spread of the virus produced turmoil in the data series used in the index.
US and ARKANSAS COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank produces a monthly coincident economic index for the U.S. A coincident indicator is a metric that shows the current state of economic activity within a particular area. Coincident indicators are important because they show economists and policymakers the current state of the economy. The coincident index is calculated using employment, real earnings, average weekly hours worked in manufacturing, and the unemployment rate.
Both the U.S. and AR coincident indicators are normalized to the January 2015 origin. The following graph shows both normalized indicators.
From January 2015 thru February 2020 the index for AR grew faster than the U.S. index. In February the effect of the virus hit both the U.S. and AR. However, the decline in the AR index was significantly less than the decline in the U.S. The recover was faster in the U.S. index than in the AR index and now both are increasing with AR remaining above the U.S.
The forecast for the AR index is shown in the following graph.
The rapid growth in the AR index is forecast to continue to increase but at a declining rate.
Forecasts updated 4 December 2020 reflecting data ending October 2020.
Source: FRED: Arkansas data = ARPHCI and US data = USPHCI and author’s calculations.
Arkansas Total Non-Farm Employment
Arkansas total non-farm employment is closely aligned with U.S. payroll employment. In an analysis (not shown) 99.9% of the variation in Arkansas employment is explained by the variation in U.S. payroll employment and the historical values of Arkansas’ non-farm employment. Conclusion: As U.S. payroll employment moves up and down, so goes Arkansas’ employment.
Forecasts of Arkansas’ expected total payroll employment can be shown as the 12 month % change. The graphic pattern shows a steady 12 month percentage change from January 2016 thru December 2018. Since then, the 12 month percentage change has trended down until April 2020.
Again, the pattern of the 12 month % change in AR non-farm employment follows the pattern of the U.S. employment. The AR recovery in April has lost its momentum, as has the U.S. employment.
The reader is familiar with discussions about a recovery in the shape of a ‘W’. The graph below shows a classic ‘W’ shape for the forecast for the 12 month % change in non-farm employment in AR.
Forecasts updated on 22 November 2020 using data thru October 2020.
SOURCE: FRED, series = ARNA, seasonally adjusted