For The Nation and Arkansas
Readers may be interested in short term forecasts for some data series for the U.S. and Arkansas economies. The published forecasts are for various macroeconomic series. Some forecasts are shown for the next time period while others show the pattern expected over a number of future periods.
All the data series are time series. That is, each observation is recorded for a specific point in time – hourly, weekly, monthly, quarterly or annually. The observations are ordered from the oldest to the most recent. The interval between each observation is the same, and the time periods are never mixed. Weekly observations are not mixed with monthly, and monthly are not mixed with quarterly.
The source of each time series is noted below each entry. The calculations are by the author.
Since the data are time series, advanced time series techniques are used to prepare the forecasts. Classical regression techniques are not appropriate to summarize time series data and calculate forecasts. The statistical software used in the analysis is the most sophisticated available. The software is readily available from http://www.autobox.com.
The ‘Snippets’ link is a collection of comments about National and Arkansas personalities and policies.
The US data series are available on the FRED link at the St. Louis Federal Reserve website – https://fred.stlouisfed.org
The sources of AR data series are shown below the graphs.